Survivor Bias and Stock Market Risk

 

Survivor Bias and Stock Market Risk

Issue:

Shortly after the large stock price decline of Facebook on July 26,2018, CNBC posted an article with a chart of other large market-cap declines of U.S. stocks.   Every single company in the chart still exists as an ongoing company.   It appears as the chart was compiled from a database that only contain companies that are still listed.

What no longer actively traded companies might have made a list of the largest declines in equity value for large-cap companies?

Why does the exclusion of these companies from the chart create a misleading picture of the risk of investing in equity?

The chart lists three companies with large cap declines in 2018?  Why is the occurrence of so many recent large declines in big-cap equity a concern?

The article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/facebook-on-pace-for-biggest-one-day-loss-in-value-for-any-company-sin.html

The Chart:

Market Cap Losses in Big Cap Stock

Company

Date Decrease In Equity ($B)

Facebook

Jul 26 2018 $114.50

Intel

sep 22 2000

-90.7

Microsoft

Apr 3 2000

-80

Apple Jan 24 2016

-59.6

Exxon Mobile

Oct 15 2008

-52.6

General Electric

Apr 11 2008

-46.9

Alphabet

Feb 2 2018

-41

Bank of America

Oct 7 2008

-38.4

Amazon

Apr 2,2018

-36.5

Wells Fargo

Feb 5 2018

-28.9

Citigroup

Jul 23 2002

-25.9

JP Morgan Chase Sep 29 2008

-24.9

 

Discussion

What no longer actively traded companies might have made a list of the largest declines in equity value for large-cap companies?

Companies no longer actively traded, which experienced large one-day drops in equity value include   — Enron, Worldcom, the old General Motors, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merill Lynch.   There are probably many more.

Why does the exclusion of these companies from the chart create a misleading picture of the risk of investing in equity?

 First, this list suggests large drops in equity values occur less frequently than a chart composed from all firms that ever existed.

Second, a list of large declines composed of stocks that survived understates the potential loss of wealth from buying and holding stocks after a large decline.   In fact, all the stocks on the CNBC list have recovered nicely.

Third, an anaysis of risk, which includes bankrupt firms would encourage investors to seek greater diversification in terms of number of equity holdings, sector, and asset classes.

The chart lists three companies with large cap declines in 2018?  Why is the occurrence of so many recent large declines in big-cap equity a concern?

Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon all had their large declines in 2018.   These are three of the four FANG stocks.   The smallest FANG company also has had a recent large percentage decline.

The most popular trendy sector of the stock market is now realizing extremely large one-day changes.   This appears to be happening with greater frequency.

The disproportionate number of 2018 large-cap declines in this chart convinces me that people who have made a lot of money in FANG and in other high-tech stocks need to take some money off the table when the stock prices reach new highs.

Of course, in the case of Facebook  this advise was more valuable prior to July 26.

The volatility of FANG names and other Tech stocks does not mean this is a good time to buy value stocks because the pending  increase in interest rates might hurt value stocks more than growth stocks

I would be alarmed by the large number of 2018 events even if the chart contained firms that were no longer actively traded.

The Democratic Split

Democrats are optimistic that the Russian and corruptions scandals will propel the party to victory in 2018.  Perhaps they are correct but I fear that they are wrong for two reasons.

First, President Trump continues to give weekly rallies to his enthusiastic base.  There are no figures on the Democratic giving large robust rallies.

Second, aside from Russia and corruption (admittedly two big asides) the entire debate today centers around Trump priorities – basically immigration, trade and low taxes.

The Democrats do much better when the conversation involves health care, student debt, pensions and Social Security.   The common theme linking these issues is that despite the currently strong economy many Americans are financially insecure and are having trouble saving for the future or for education.

Why aren’t Democrats out there rallying their base the way Trump is?

Why aren’t Democrats talking more about financial security — health care, student debt and retirement – issues of concern to working-class households?

The basic answer is that there is a huge split in the Democratic party both on economic priorities and appropriate policies.  This split is paralyzing the party and impeding the delivery of a viable progressive agenda.

 The liberal wing of the Democratic Party offers transformative radical change.  The centrists believe that the liberal wing’s policy proposals are unrealistic and could make many people worse off.

The centrists offer relatively modest policy changes and appear to only reluctantly embrace left-wing proposals when they need votes.   The current message offered by the centrists will not rouse the base.

The liberals correctly believe the current centrist agenda would at best maintain the status quo and at worse could implement compromises with Republicans that will weaken the existing safety net.

This conflict can be illustrated by a discussion of three issues – health care, student debt and retirement savings.   These issues allow for the Democrats to create a theme for 2020.   The theme is how do we make Americans more financial secure and what party do you trust to do this?

This is a good place for me to state my bias.   I am a centrist not a liberal.  However, many of the current policy proposals offered by centrists are insufficient.

Here is an outline of some policy ideas, which could bridge the gap between centrists and liberals.

Policy Priorities

Discussion of Health Care:

It is hard to understand why Democrats aren’t spending more time talking about health care.   The number of uninsured Americans without health insurance rose by 3.2 million people during President Trump’s first year in office.   This issue and other problems with health insurance markets received more coverage in CNBC than by MSNBC.

The liberals want single payer health care.   The fact that single-pay works well in some countries, which have only known single payer, does not mean that the United States could transition from the current system to a single payer system.

The adoption of a single-payer system would make some people more financially secure but would make many people worse off than the current situation.   Many health care providers and doctors would have substantially lower compensations.   This would be a disaster for new doctors with substantial medical school debt.  The single-payer would be more generous than some private plans but might deny or provide insufficient reimbursement for expensive procedures.

Many centrists have endorsed and voted for a Medicare for all plan, even though their more detailed thoughts are more in line with ACA modification proposals.   They argue their vote is a symbolic one in support of universal coverage.   I would argue this vote is a pander.

The centrists want to repair the ACA but their discussions do not fully acknowledge that problems with the ACA existed even before the Trump Administration weakened the program. The ACA was a big step forward but also a disappointment compared to where we want to be.

Despite the enactment of the ACA, insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses have continued to rise.  There is some evidence that state exchange insurance has narrower networks and entail higher costs than some employer-based insurance.  Moreover, people who take ACA coverage are required to take employer-based insurance if they obtain a job with an employer that offers coverage.  Rules and tax incentives favoring employer-based insurance over state exchange insurance weaken state market places.

There is no doubt that Trump Administration polices – ending the individual mandate, reducing funds for ACA enrollment, potential new rules allowing alternatives to ACA policies and a freeze on ACA reinsurance payments – have weakened state exchanges and are responsible for the increase in the number of uninsured.

However, centrists need to do more than offer a patch to the ACA.   They need to offer a vision on how we can move to a system that provides more coverage, lower out-of-pocket expenses, and access to all procedures and drugs.

Authors Note: I am currently working on a health care proposal.   It will be published by the end of 2018.

Discussion of student debt:  It is hard to believe that the Democrats aren’t talking a lot more about student debt, especially given recent Trump Administration proposals.   Recent actions or positions taken by the Trump Administration on student debt include:

  1. The proposed elimination of the public service loan program,
  2. The proposed elimination of subsidized student loans,
  3. The end of compensation for student borrowers who are victims of fraud,
  4. The reduced enforcement of rules allowing enrollment in Income Based Replacement loan programs

Why aren’t Democrats talking more about these student debt issues?

The liberal wing wants free college for people attending public universities.   This does work in some countries.  However, free public college is very expensive and the transition would adversely impact private institutions.

The centrists need to come up with innovative pragmatic solutions to the college debt problem and incorporate these proposals in their standard speech.

I have published a working paper, which lists 12 pragmatic ways to reduce the growth of student borrowers with excessive student debt and mitigate debt burdens for overextended borrowers.

One of my proposals involves providing additional financial assistance and reduce student loans to first-year students who do not have an extensive credit history or proven academic record.

A second proposal reduces interest payments after 15 years.   This approach is likely to be more effective than current loan forgiveness programs, which are designed to discharge debt.

My student debt proposals are available in my working paper on Amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/Innovative-Solutions-College-Debt-Problem/dp/1982999446

Discussion of retirement security issues:   Retirement security entails Medicare, Social Security and 401(k) plans.

The discussion on this issue should start with a recognition that under current law there will be automatic cuts to Social Security and Medicare benefits unless Congress acts.   Democrats need to ask whether Republicans can be trusted to act given their performance on ACA repeal or replace.

In the 1980s, President Reagan and Democrats in Congress came together to fix Social Security.   The Democrats need to ask whether the current Republican party can be trusted to compromise on this issue.

The other aspect of the retirement security problem is that many workers have insufficient retirement savings. Today few companies provide workers with traditional pension plans.   Many 401(k) plans have high fees and most lack an annuity option during retirement.   Many workers are unable or unwilling to maximize their contribution to 401(k) plans and often the money in these plans is disbursed prior to retirement.

The Democrats then need to provide detailed proposals on how to improve retirement security.   These proposals should recognize two important goals – (1) Social Security needs to be placed on a sound finance system and (2) the entire retirement savings system needs to be improved.

The Democrats need to advance policies that achieve both these goals and must reiterate opposition to Social Security benefit cuts that worsen retirement security.   The proposed solution is likely to include either additional revenue or use of some general tax revenue to maintain current Social Security income.

The Best Dialogue for Democrats

The current political dialogue is being set almost entirely by Trump and the Republicans.   Their focus is on trade and tariffs, immigration, and standing for the national anthem.

My thesis in this essay is that Democrats need to put financial security — health care, student debt, and retirement income at the center of the national discussion.

Centrists must move forward with a pragmatic progressive approach to these issues.  Many key centrists are spending more of their time either pandering to liberals or bashing liberals for being too radical than proposing polices that solve problems.

Some Democrats, both progressives and centrists, are more focused on tax issues and/or inequality.  The centrists are concerned that proposals by liberals will explode the deficit.  They should be more focused on revenue losses from the recently enacted Trump tax cut.

Elizabeth Warren recently pointed out the America was more prosperous when marginal tax rates were over 50 percent.  This defense of high tax rates is a losing argument both substantively and politically.  The decrease in prosperity or the increase in inequality was more likely caused by loss of jobs from factories moving overseas and from technological changes which reduced wages of low-skilled workers.

Tax policy is complicated.   A case can be made for changes in the tax code to obtain more revenue.   However, economists have found that high marginal tax rates change distort behavior.   Most notably, high marginal tax rates can decrease work, especially in two-worker households.

An economic agenda stressing reforms that will improve household financial security will resonate more with voters than an agenda focused on taxes and income inequality.

We live in a world where every one of Trump’s utterances and farts dominates the news cycle. Democrats seem totally incapable of prioritizing the farts.   In my view, Trump’s treasonous approach to Russia and separation of children from parents at the border are more important than Stormy Daniels

Democrats must respond to the moral dilemma created by the Trump Presidency.   However, at the end of the day a person struggling with student debt, worried about health care coverage for her family, and worried about whether she will be able to retire with decent income is more concerned about financial security than the scandal of the day.

Democrats need to get out there and reset the nation’s agenda.  To modify Bill Clinton said it was the economy stupid.   My view is that the economy must be broadly defined to include financial security.

Holdings of Ten Emerging Market Funds

Holdings of Ten Emerging Market Funds

This post started with a list of emerging market funds found at the site below.

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/emerging-markets-equities/

I examine and describe the holding and recent returns on the 10 largest of these funds.

I comment on the holdings of these funds, the risk of these funds and the risk of some of the holdings.

List of Funds, Discussion of Geographic Diversifications, and YTD returns:

Some Information on Ten Emerging Market Funds
Symbol Fund Geographic Concentration YTD Returns
VWO Vangarud FTSE Emerging Market 7 of top ten holdings are in China -7.32%
IEMG I Shares Core MSCI Emerging Market 7 of top ten holdings are in China -6.95%
EEM I Shares MSCI Fund 7 of top ten holdings are in China -7.44%
SCHE Schwab Emerging Markets Fund 6 of top ten holdings are in China -7.34%
FNDE Schwab Fundamental Large  Firm Emerging Market Index Largest holding is from Korea and second and third largest holding are Russian.  Top 10 holdings also include companies from China, Brazil and Taiwan -6.71%
DEM Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Top two holdings are Russian.   Most other top ten holdings are form China or Taiwan. -4.54%
RSX Van  Eck Vectors Russia ETF All holdings appear to be in Russia. 4.36%
GEM Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Emerging Markets Equity ETF 7 of top ten holdings are in China -6.75%
SPEM SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF 6 of top 10 holdings are in China -6.54%
DGS Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF Top 10 holdings are less than 9 percent of all holdings.   Highly diversified, smaller companies. -7.34%

 

Some Observations:

Many of the funds have a very large share of their funds in China.   In fact, some of the emerging market funds could accurately be called China plays.

Three of the funds have substantial issues in Russia.  Also, most but not all, of the Russian holdings are in the oil and gas sector.  Important to research holding If concerns about corruptions and sanctions would deter you from investing in Russia.   Energy funds that are not in Russia may be preferable to Russian energy plays.

Nine of the Ten funds have negative YTD returns.  The fund that exclusively invests in Russia has a +4.36% return. This fund performed really poorly in prior years.  The YTD return on U.S. large cap stocks is around 6.0%, largely because the market has been up for the past week or so.

Can investments in emerging market ETFs provide insurance against a major downturn in the U.S. market?

 Short answer is probably not:   The downturn in emerging markets in the 2007 to 2009 crisis was larger than the downturn in large-cap U.S. stocks.

Go here for discussion of emerging market funds during the financial crisis

http://financememos.com/2018/07/23/emerging-markets-during-the-financial-crisis/

Thoughts on specific holding of emerging market funds:

Emerging market funds have some well know reputable holding and some firms with dubious reputations, and some firms with little name recognition.

The most successful holdings of the funds in this sector include: (1) Alibaba, (2) Tencent and (3) Baidu Inc.

Investors who want a taste of advanced emerging markets or China may be better off directly investing a small fraction of their wealth in these companies.

Emerging Markets During the Financial Crisis

Emerging Markets During the Financial Crisis

True or False:   During the 2007 financial crisis emerging market funds outperformed U.S. large Cap funds?

Answer:  False:

Evidence:   The chart below compares peak price in 2007 prior to stock market collapse and trough price in 2009 prior to the recovery.   The peak price for VLACX was on October 1, 2007.   The peak price of VWO, the largest emerging market fund, occurred a bit later, on October 22, 2007.   The trough price for both funds was realized on March 2, 2009.

U.S. Large Cap versus Emerging Market During the Financial Crisis
Funds Peak Before Crash in October 2007 Trough at End of Crash in March 2009 % Decline
VLACX U.S. Large Cap 28.1 12.6 55.3%
VWO Emerging Markets 57.5 19.0 67.0%

The collapse in the Vanguard emerging market fund was larger than the collapse in the Vanguard large-cap U.S. equity market.

Perhaps some other emerging market fund did better but I doubt it.

Asset Allocation for Twelve Sector Funds

Asset Allocation for Twelve Sector Funds

Issue:  Under an asset allocation investment strategy, an initial allocation is assigned to all assets in a portfolio and the portfolio is rebalanced from time to time to maintain the original composition of assets.   The rebalancing can be at scheduled dates or whenever the portfolio manager observes large changes in relative asset prices.

The original allocation of assets is maintained by selling assets that do well and buying assets that do poorly.   This approach can backfire.   A hedge fund manager who bought horse and buggy stocks and sold car stocks after the introduction of the car would not have done well.  However, asset allocators who sold internet firms prior to the tech bubble in the late 1990s did quite well.

Question:   Table one below has stock price information on 12 sector ETFs offered by Vanguard for three dates – 7/1/13, 7/1/16, and 6/29/18.

Using this price data, calculate the average annual return between 7/1/13 and 7/116 and the average annual return from 7/1/16 to 6/29/18 for the 12 funds.

What do these annualized return statistics suggest about the likelihood of success of an asset allocation strategy, which starts out with equal shares of the 12 ETFs on 7/1/2013 and rebalances on 7/1/2016.

Adjusted Close Stock Price for 12 Sector Funds
Symbol Fund Description 7/1/13 7/1/16 6/29/18
VDC Consumer Stables 93.55 133.53 134.27
VDE Energy 103.12 88.25 105.08
VFH Financials 38.12 47.48 67.45
VHT Health Care 86.84 133.78 159.14
VIS Industrials 79.06 106.53 135.81
VGT Information Tech 73.07 112.61 181.42
VAW Materials 82.52 104.33 131.56
VNQ Real Estate 56.70 84.58 81.46
VOX Communications Services 68.28 94.02 84.92
VPU Utilities 72.52 106.33 115.96
GLD Gold 127.96 128.98 118.65
SLV Silver 19.14 19.35 15.15

A note on calculations:   The return between two dates is obtained from the formula (APt/ APt-n(1/n)-1

The first period is three years and the second period is two years.   (n is 3 for first period and 2 for second period.)

The table below sorts the funds from least to highest annualized return during the first period.

Annualized Rate of Return for 12 Funds
Symbol Fund Description July 2013 to July 2016 July 2016 to July 2018 Diff.
VDE Energy -5.1% 9.1% 14.2%
GLD Gold 0.3% -4.1% -4.4%
SLV Silver 0.4% -11.5% -11.9%
VFH Financials 7.6% 19.2% 11.6%
VAW Materials 8.1% 12.3% 4.2%
VIS Industrials 10.5% 12.9% 2.5%
VOX Communications Services 11.3% -5.0% -16.2%
VDC Consumer Stables 12.6% 0.3% -12.3%
VPU Utilities 13.6% 4.4% -9.2%
VNQ Real Estate 14.3% -1.9% -16.1%
VHT Health Care 15.5% 9.1% -6.4%
VGT Information Tech 15.5% 26.9% 11.4%

Observations:

Information Technology, the best performing fund in the first period, was also the best performing fund in the second period.  This asset allocation strategy would have reduced holdings of an asset, which continued to out-perform all other assets in the portfolio.

Energy, the worst performing fund, in the first period, had a return 3 percentage points over average of the 12 ETF returns in the second period.

Four of the six worst-performing sectors in the first period realized improved returns in the second period.

Five of the six best-performing funds in the first period had worse returns in the second period.  (The only exception is the previously mentioned information technology fund.)

The median annualized return in first period was 10,9 percent.   Only four funds had annualized returns over this level in the second period.

Two sectors – financials and information tech – are positive outliers in the second period.  However, financials have underperformed in last few months.

Concluding Remarks:   Information Tech, the best performer in both time periods, did spectacularly in the second period.  Asset allocators sold the best fund.

Asset allocation strategies tend to work more consistently when the investor holds broader funds, including both the overall stock market and debt funds.  Subsequent research will look at situations where asset allocation provides better results.

Authors Note:  Interested in financial problems caused by student debt.   Take this quiz on student debt trends and proposed policy changes.

http://financememos.blogspot.com/2018/07/a-student-debt-quiz.html