Ukraine and the race for the next speaker of the House

The more conservative members of the Republican House and the more liberal members of the Democratic House are adopting Putin’s position on the war in Ukraine. Can centrists of both parties unite to support Ukraine?

Initially opposition to assistance for Ukraine came from the right. 57 House Republicans opposed assistance in a May vote.  More recently, Kevin McCarthy the potential future speaker stated the House could target Ukraine funding. Former President Trump is supportive of Putin’s position on the war.

A recent letter from 29 members of the progressive caucus inside the Democratic party called on the Administration to support “vigorous diplomatic efforts” to support a negotiated cease fire and a cease fire.   Hard to understand how this approach could lead to success when Russia is bombing civilians and infrastructure, committing war crimes and controls around 20 percent of Ukraine.   

Withdrawing support from Ukraine or putting pressure on Ukraine to accept an immediate cease fire when Russia commits war crimes, has forced deportations of Ukrainian citizens, and still controls substantial Ukrainian territory, is incomprehensible to me.

The extremist Republican and extremist Democrats who basically support Putin’s position in Ukraine are a minority of the House and a minority of America.

Most pundits believe that the Republicans will have most of the next House.  They would force a reversal in U.S. policy toward Ukraine and do other detrimental things including shutting down the government and breaching the debt limit.

Speaker Pelosi has been a strong supporter of Ukrainian aid, but she is under intense pressure from her left flank on a wide variety of issue.

A centrist Democrat or Republican could run for the job of speaker.  The next speaker could be a centrist who supports Ukraine if centrist Democrats and Republicans unite.  

The Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress.  The House could choose to elect a non-partisan respected figure outside of Congress to be the next speaker.

This action would result in America doing the right thing in Ukraine, could prevent future shutdown and debt-limit emergencies.  A speaker who is respected by members of both parties could facilitate the dialogue on a wide range of issues and create a process that leads to more sensible centrist policies.

Authors Note:  David Bernstein, a retired economist has written several papers advocating for innovative centrist policy solutions.

The kindle book Defying Magnets:  Centrist Policies in a Polarized World has essays on policies student debt, retirement savings and health care.

The paper A 2024 Health Care Proposal provides solutions to health care problems that are not currently under consideration.

The proposals in Alternatives to the Biden Student Debt Plan are less expensive to taxpayers than the Biden student loan proposals.  The reforms presented here provide better incentives and reductions for future students while the Biden debt-relief proposal offers a one-time improvement for current debtors.

Ukraine is the most important issue of our time.  The conflict today in Ukraine reminds me of the conflict in the 1930s in Spain against Franco and fascism.  Kevin McCarthy must not become speaker.

Should gig workers be employees?

A proposed Biden Administration rule reclassifying gig workers as employees, which intends to expand health and retirement benefits, would have adverse consequences. The proposed rule would reduce opportunities for people seeking flexible work hours, reduce employment options during economic downturns, cause some firms to reduce benefits, and worsen health insurance outcomes for some workers. Modifications to the tax treatment of individual retirement accounts and health insurance premiums would more effectively expand benefits than reclassification of work status.

Introduction:   A proposed Department of Labor rule, described here, would make it more difficult for companies to treat workers as independent contractors instead of employees. The proposal would classify workers as employees instead of independent contractors if they are economically dependent on a company. 

The purpose of the new rule is to increase health and retirement benefits for people currently employed as gig workers.   The proposed reclassification of gig workers to full-time employees does not automatically lead to better benefits for all workers and could have the unintended side-effect of decreasing opportunities in the labor force. 

  • Cost to firms maintaining current benefits packages would increase.
  • Some firms would reduce benefit packages to reduce the increase in costs stemming from the new regulation. 
  • Some firms would respond to the regulation by hiring fewer full-time employees and more part-time employees.
  • Some workers might leave the workforce because they would be unable to obtain employment offering flexible hours. 
  • Some workers with state-exchange health insurance would lose access to a premium tax credit and could receive a less generous health insurance package from their employer.

The reduction of disparities between the retirement and health benefits received by gig workers and employees could better be achieved through modifications of the tax treatment and rules governing health insurance premiums and individual retirement accounts than by the proposed regulation.  

Labor Market and Macroeconomic Issues:  

Supporters of the gig economy point out that many workers need or prefer a position that offers flexible hours.  This need is especially pronounced for people with young children.  Lack of affordable and reliable day care and was the cause of a decrease in workforce participation during the pandemic.  The forced reclassification of gig workers to employee status could reduce available flexible positions.

The existence of the gig economy may reduce loss of employment during recessions, if people who lose full-time traditional employment can find work in the gig economy.  One recent article explored the relationship between county unemployment and the proportion of county residents working online at a particular platform.  The article found that a 1.0 percent increase in county unemployment is associated with a 21.8 percent increase in the number of county residents working on-line at the platform.  This finding suggests that new regulations that reduce access to the gig work option could increase unemployment during a recession.

Health Insurance Issues:

Most working-age employees and their dependents obtain their health insurance from their employer and many employers pay a substantial portion of the health insurance premium.    Since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act, workers without an offer of employer-based insurance are eligible for a premium tax credit for health insurance on state exchanges.  The employer mandate, created under the Affordable Care Act, fined firms with more than 50 employees that did not provide health insurance to their full-time workers. 

The reclassification of gig workers as employees would reduce the role of state-exchange markets.  There is substantial disparity in the cost and quality of employer-based insurance.

In some cases, the reclassification of a gig worker to employee status will improve health insurance outcomes.  In other cases, the converted gig worker would have worse or more expensive insurance.

The reclassification of gig workers to employee status could benefit young middle-income workers with no dependents when employers pay a large share of premiums.  Many young adults receiving their health insurance on state exchanges pay 100 percent of their health insurance premium because the premium tax credit is not available when premiums are less than 8.5 percent of income.  These workers would realize lower insurance costs if they were reclassified as employees and if their new employer paid a share of the health insurance premium.

In other cases, the reclassification of gig workers to employees worsens outcomes.  Many employers offer only one health insurance plan with limited benefits, narrow networks, and high premiums for workers.  The existence of the offer of employer-based health insurance makes employees ineligible for the premium tax credit and makes state-exchange insurance unaffordable. 

A regulation leading to the reclassification of gig workers to full-time worker would cause firms that do not change their health insurance or employment policies to either increase purchase of health insurance for workers or pay a fine for full-time workers who receive their health insurance from state exchanges.  

Some firms would respond to the regulation by reducing hours worked, by increasing the number of part-time employees, thereby decreasing fines under the employee mandate.   Some firms would reduce insurance costs by increasing plan deductibles or by adopting a narrow health provider network.  Some firms would reduce the amount of their premium subsidy.

A better way to assist workers in the gig economy is to expand and improve subsidies for premiums on health insurance purchased on state exchanges while merging the markets for employer-based and state exchange insurance.  Three reforms that deserve consideration are:

  • Provide tax incentives for employer subsidies of state exchange health insurance instead of employer subsidies of firm-specific employer-based health insurance.
  • Modify the premium tax credit to provide some subsidy for young adults without an employer subsidy.
  • Create a new employer mandate consistent with the new subsidies.

The modified health insurance subsidy outlined here reduces costs of state exchange health insurance for all young adults who do not currently receive a subsidy.

The merger of state-exchange health insurance and employer-based health insurance markets and the modification of the premium tax credit will assist workers with multiple part-time jobs and will allow workers to maintain continuous health insurance coverage through periods of unemployment and job transitions. 

The merger of state-exchange and employer-based health insurance markets allows all households to search for the most suitable health insurance plan.  It prevents a situation where a worker needs specialized care perhaps at a top cancer hospital is tied to a single employer-based plan that does not offer access to the desired provider.

A more complete discussion of this health care reform proposal can be found here.   

Retirement Plan Issues:   

Many firms offer full-time employees a 401(k) plan.  Workers at firms that do not offer a 401(k) plan and gig workers must save for retirement through an Individual Retirement Account.

401(k) plans are more generous to employees than IRAs.  First, employers are allowed to directly contribute to a 401(k) plan and/or match employee contributions to the plan but are not similarly allowed to contribute to a worker’s IRA.  Second, the maximum allowable employee contribution to a 401(k) plan in 2022, ($20,500 or $27,00 if over 55 years old), is substantially higher than the maximum allowable contribution to an IRA, ($6,000 or $7,000 if over 55).

The reclassification of gig workers to employee status could lead to higher costs for firms and firms could take actions to offset the increase in costs.

Some firms will respond to reclassification of gig workers by reducing the number of workers who are eligible for participation in the firm-sponsored retirement plan.  This could occur by increasing the share of employees working part time.

Some firms could reduce employer contributions to 401(k) plans or eliminate the 401(k) plan altogether.

An alternative superior way to expand retirement benefits for gig workers is to increase the generosity of Individual Retirement Accounts and to allow firms to contribute to individual retirement accounts owned by employees and accounts owned by contractors.  Specific changes that should be implemented include.

  • Allow firms to directly contribute matching funds to Individual Retirement Accounts for employees and for independent contractors. 
  • Increase allowable worker contribution limits into Individual Retirement accounts to the level that exist for 401(k) accounts. 
  • Replace tax exemptions and deductions for Individual Retirement Account contributions with a tax credit.

The use of a tax credit for contributions to an Individual Retirement Account favors low-income workers who are in a lower marginal tax bracket.   The change from a tax deduction to a tax credit will also disproportionately benefit gig workers who tend to be in a low marginal tax bracket. 

Contributions to Health Savings Accounts are also tax deductible. Distributions from health savings accounts used for qualified health expenses are not taxed. The replacement of a tax deduction with a tax credit for contributions to health savings accounts would benefit low-income workers and could also disproportionately benefit gig workers.   Firms should also be allowed to make direct contributions to health savings accounts owned by employees and independent contractors.

The pension reforms currently being considered by Congress, discussed here, appear to increase the role of 401(k) plan and could exacerbate the gap between gig and employee pension outcomes.  Congress is not currently moving towards the pension reforms outlined in this memo.

Concluding Remarks: The typical gig worker receives less in health and retirement benefits than the typical employee.  However, the newly proposed rule that would convert gig workers to full time employees is an economically inefficient solution to this disparity.  The new rule would reduce the availability of positions with flexible work hours, reduce labor force participation among parents with young children, and could worsen unemployment during economic downturns.  The rule would result in many firms reducing health and retirement benefits.  Also, some gig workers that lose access to the premium tax credit for state exchange health insurance could be made worse off depending on the quality of the employer-based health plan received after reclassification.

A better solution to the disparity between health and retirement benefits offered to gig workers and full-time employees could be achieved through modification of rules governing health insurance premiums and rules governing Individual Retirement Accounts.

How far can ARKK sink?

The ARKK fund is down over 60 percent for the year but is still overvalued and is not a buy. Investors interested in the tech sector should consider individual holdings or a more stable ETF.

Introduction:   ETF investors often buy when the fund price declines and sell when it rises. However, a decline in the asset price does not mean the asset is correctly valued.

Even though ARKK has fallen more than 60 percent in the past year, it contains several holdings that are still overvalued, and its PE ratio is undefined because of negative overall earnings.

Empirical Analysis of Current ARKK Holdings:  The ARKK fund is an actively managed fund that invests exclusively in companies that the fund manager believes will disrupt the economy.  Data on the holdings of the fund was obtained from Zachs.  It has 34 companies and a small amount in a fund that has government securities.   Financial data on the 34 equities in the funds was obtained from CNBC.  Here is the link to financial data for Tesla the fund’s largest holding.

Financial variables for the 34 ARKK holdings indicates that despite large declines in share prices most of the holdings in the ARKK fund remain overvalued.

  • Only four of the 34 holdings (Tesla, Zoom, Nvidia, and Materialise), around 17 percent of the holdings of the fund, reported positive earnings per share.  

The weighted average of net earnings was negative making it impossible to report a PE ratio for ARKK. Firm PE ratios are undefined for firms with negative earnings. ETF PE ratios are undefined when the denominator of the PE ratio, a weighted average of earnings per share is negative.  

An alternative valuation metric used when earnings are negative is the difference between share price and earnings per share price over share price.  High values of (P-E)/p correspond to high valuation measures.  

A value of (P-E)/P equal to 0.98 is equivalent to a PE ratio of 50.  A value of (P-E)/P greater than 1.0 is undefined due to negative earnings.  The use of (P-E)/P allows for the inclusion of firms with negative earnings in comparisons of portfolio valuations. Go here for a discussion of the alternative valuation statistic.

  • The value of (P-E)/P for ARKK is 1.082.

High valuation measures are acceptable when firms are investing and growing.  Early investors in firms like Apple and Amazon did quite well despite years of high valuations.  The ARKK holdings are not similarly situated.

  • 33 of the 34 ARKK stocks experienced a decline in price over the past 52 weeks.  The average stock price over the last 52 weeks was down 63.1 percent.   The lower stock price makes it expensive for these firms to raise additional funds in equity markets. 
  • 9 of the 34 companies had an earnings per share loss that exceeded 25 percent of the stock price.   The existence of larger losses relative to share price could be indicative of concerns about future liquidity. 
  • ARKK owns more than 5.0 percent of the shares in 16 of its holdings.   These relatively high stakes could limit the ability of ARRK to reallocate and reduce exposure without exacerbating declines in stock prices. 

The empirical analysis reveals several red lights on the future of ARKK including — high valuations, previous large stock price declines, existence of several holding with large losses compared to equity, and high exposure in some positions.

Discussion of ARKK holdings:  The rationale behind investing in potential disruptors is the likelihood of one or more large successes leading to large returns.  Some of the ARKK investments are interesting and could be considered once the tech market nears a bottom.  However, ARKK has a lot of companies that are unlikely to prosper.

I looked at some of the news and analyst on the 10 largest ARKK holdings.  Here is what I found. 

Tesla: symbol TSLA Tesla is the largest position and ARKK’s most successful investment.  Tesla has been a true disruptor.  However, its valuation is high $642.3 billion more than the rest of the world’s auto industry.  Tesla sold fewer than a million vehicles in 2021 compared to over 9 million by Toyota alone.  Tesla makes most of its money from the sale of cars but does have some other energy streams.  Tesla is the leader in electric vehicles, but Porsche may have the better high-end car and other firms are entering.  At current stock prices Tesla is a better buy than ARKK but may not be a good long term buy.  Even with other income streams it is difficult to justify a price on Tesla that makes a relatively small auto company more valuable than the rest of the industry. I am not currently a buyer of either the TSLA or ARKK.

Zoom: symbol ZM, Zoom did extremely well due to at-home work during the pandemic, but the pandemic growth rate is over, and the company is facing new competition from Microsoft and possibly other larger firms.

Roku: symbol ROKU, Roku attempts to make it easier and more affordable for people to watch multiple TV shows.  ROKU’s top competitors are Apple, Net Flix, Amazon, and Microsoft.  Stock price is falling.  If you google ROKU and problems, you get several links on how to deal with technical ROKU issues.  Other applications and services may be more reliable than ROKU.   I have no reason to believe that ROKU will win this competition.

Unity:  Unity Software, symbol U. is a software developer and may benefit from the metaverse.  The company might be acquired by a larger firm.  A speculator might be better off purchasing a small amount of U rather than ARKK.

Block inc., symbol SQ, is a financial services firm.  Visa and Paypal appear to be better positioned than Square.

Teledoc, symbol TDOC, has several active competitors.   Go here for one list.  Two funds owned by Cathie Wood have invested in Teledoc.  She may not be able to get out of these positions without causing a large decline.  I would not buy Teledoc either by itself of through ARKK.

UI Path, symbol Path, is an artificial intelligence company that helps automate routine tasks.  It has viable products but it stock price has fallen by nearly 80 percent.  Path is a company that might be worth looking at once the tech sector bottoms.  ARKK bought it too soon.

CRISPR, symbol CRSP and BEAM therapeutic, symbol Beam: are two gene editing companies owned by ARKK.  Combined they are around 8.5 percent of ARKK holdings.  Hard to understand why ARKK holds so much of these two firms and no Moderna.

Coinbase, Symbol COIN:  Coinbase is a bad apple in an industry that is looking for a reason to exist.  Google Coinbase and allegations and get this.

Some of the ARKK holdings deserve consideration, but ARKK is not the best way to participate in these opportunities.  Interested investors should consider purchasing the better companies directly or investing in a more diversified tech fund, like VGT.

 Concluding Remarks:

I have nothing against a fund that seeks out disruptive firms but believe ARKK is poorly designed and not an appropriate investment vehicle.

The ARKK fund did well when expectations of tech returns were high and interest rates were abnormally low. It is wrong to attribute the sinking of ARKK over the past year to higher interest rates since rates today are still below their historic medians.

The investment philosophy behind ARKK is reminiscent of the gamblers ruin problem.  The gambler playing a game, or in this case several highly correlated games, with a negative expected value will eventually go broke.  

The disruptor fund might put 50 percent in a small number of disruptors and 50 percent in a safe asset.  The fund would take profits and invest in the safe asset in successful years and invest in bargains during downturns.

Authors Note:  David Bernstein has written Financial Decisions for a Secure and Happy Life, a manifesto that will improve your life and save you tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Should the Fed Pivot?

Short Answer is no. Interest rates have been artificially low for 15 years and remain below historical averages. The long era of artificially low interest rates created a bubble that was unsustainable. It is this bubble leading to a financial collapse, not Fed tightening, that will lead to an economic downturn.

Some perspective:

The Federal Reserve Board is supposed to be above political pressure.  That tradition along with several others died in the Trump era.  Remember when Trump was actively considering firing Powell.  More recently, it was Senator Warren that argues that Powell wants to throw Americans out of work even though the unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent.

The other source of political pressure is from market participants, both participants in bond and equity markets who are used to low interest rates.   The taper tantrum of 2013 occurred when the fed announced it was going to gradually reduce asset purchases. Today the pressure is on the Fed to pivot and halt increasing rates.  Famous Fund manager Cathie Woods now writes that Fed tightening can lead to a deflationary post.  

Recession is possible but deflation is not a credible concern.  Substantial inflation now exists and will not go away soon. The economy would be much better off now if Powell had ignored Trump’s threats in 2018 and had recognized that inflation in 2022 was not transitory. 

The primary cause of the coming recession is not Fed tightening.  It is instead the collapse of a stock bubble that was the result of excessive monetary growth.    This bubble and collapse could have been prevented if the Fed had previously ignored Wall Street whims.

Analysis:  Interest rates are not high compared to past figures, especially given the level of inflation.  

The first set of figures for the 1-year and 10-year constant maturity bond rate and inflation cover the 1953 to 2022 period.

  • The current October 2022 one-year constant maturity rate is 8 basis points below the 1953 to 2022 median.
  • The current October 10-year constant maturity rate is 106 basis points below the 1953 to 2022 median.
  • The current inflation rate is 583 basis points above the 1953 to 2022 median.

The fact that the interest rates are low compared to historical figures when inflation is high is remarkable because borrowers generally require an interest rate that compensates them for inflation.

The second set of figures involves comparisons of current rates to the 1971 to 2023 median.  The shorter more inflationary period allows for inclusion of the 30-year mortgage rate.

  • The current rate is 356 basis points lower than the median for the 1-year bond, 469 basis points lower for the 10-year bond, and 315 basis points lower for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, even though the current inflation rate is 287 basis points above the median.

Interest rates did rise quickly in 2022 primarily because rates were at such an artificially low level.  I compared actual September 2022 interest rates to predicted interest rates generated by a simple distributed lag model.   

  • The one-year interest rate rose a bit more than expected by the model.  The actual one-year rate was 3.9.  The predicted rate was 2.9.
  • The actual 10-year bond rate of 3.52 percent was very close to the predicted rate of 3.45 percent.

Concluding Remarks:  Interest rates are still below their historical medians.  When I look at likely interest rate outcome based on inflation and future inflation expectations, I see greater likelihood of higher inflation leading to higher interest rates and capital losses on bonds than interest rate declines and gains in bond prices.  

A Federal Reserve Policy pivot would increase my concern about higher inflation and interest rates.

I am not optimistic that the Fed Policy will lead to a soft landing, because inflation over the next few years may be driven by wages and low labor force participation, which could best be addressed by a more lenient immigration policy and tax incentives encouraging work.  

Authors Note

David Bernstein is the author of two recent policy memos.  One memo examines alternatives to the Biden Student Debt Plan. The memo argues that Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan and expansion of Income Based Replacement Loans will prove ineffective.  Several alternative policies including elimination of debt for first-year students, policies that promote on-time graduation, and interest rate concessions coupled with more stringent collection efforts on older loans near maturity are proposed and analyzed.

Another memo, A 2024 Health Care Reform Proposal , considers substantive health insurance reform.  The policies proposed here include ideas to provide continuous health insurance coverage during job transitions, improvements to health savings accounts, the elimination of short-term health plans, and a proposal to address problems caused by narrow-network health plans.

David Bernstein is also the author of eight personal finance memos contained in Financial Decisions for a Secure and Happy Life.  The book provides guidance on a number of topics including the choice between saving for retirement and reducing student debt, the choice between traditional and Roth retirement accounts, ways to minimize loss of retirement income from high-fee 401(k) plans and the advantages of the use of Series I Savings Bonds.  This $7.00 40-page memo could save you tens, even hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime.