A Red Tide and a Blue Wall 

There is a lot of discussion, hope and prayer for a blue wave leading to the Democrats retaking the house.  The House is very hard to predict.    Now I am focused on two other aspects of the election – a Red tide controlling outcome of the Senate and the rebuilding of the blue wall.

The Red Tide:

A red tide occurs when algal blooms become so numerous the coast gets discolored and water becomes unpleasant to swim in.   The Republicans by suppressing the vote in numerous states and by colluding with the Russians have created the political equivalent of the red tide.

Political pundits are claiming many Senate sears are in play.   Mitch McConnell lists 9 senate seats that are dead even.

I list 5 seats (AZ, FL, IN, NV, and MO) that are dead even.  Polls are going back and forth in these states.  I am concerned that FL could flip if the voting irregularities that helped Governor Scott in 2014 reoccur.

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/judge-rejects-emergency-motion-by-crist-camp-to-extend-broward-county-voting-hours

Two seats (MT and ND) are not even but are in play.  The polls are close but consistently favor the Democrat in MT.   Poll averages are deceptive in ND as proven when Heitkamp fueled by a large Native American vote pulled out a surprise victory in 2012.  Also, the RCP average in ND was affected by two large outliers.

This time many Native Americans will not be able to vote.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/657125819/many-native-ids-wont-be-accepted-at-north-dakota-polling-places

Republicans in red states are getting very good at voter suppression.    Have you read about the exact match program in Georgia?

Exact Match in Georgia

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/georgia-sued-placing-thousands-voter-registrations-hold-election-n919526

The pundits believe that TN and TX are in play.    My view is that Republicans are highly likely to hold both states.

  • Breedsen cratered when he stated that he would support Kavenaugh. Volunteers quit.  Last three polls were abysmal.
  • TX is highly polled. Polls are relatively close but Cruz leads in just about every poll.

There have been some accusations about voter suppression in Texas but some articles say this problem is being fixed.  We’ll have to see.

 

Voting in Texas:

https://www.startelegram.com/news/state/texas/article219921185.html

 

Senate control depends on these races but objectively the Republicans have many more paths than the Democrats.

This is supposed to be the year of the woman. but sadly two senior female Democrats Macaskill in MO and Heitkamp in ND are in dogfights.   The number of female democrats could fall depending on these outcomes and results in AZ and NV.

Restoring the Blue Wall: 

There is some good news for the Democrats.   The blue wall in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is being repaired.  The Democratic incumbent running for reelection is up by double digits in all three states.

All three states which were blue for decades, went for Trump over Clinton in 2016.

Many of the people in these states appear to regret their vote for Trump.

Even more surprising is that Democratic Gubernatorial candidates are leading in the polls in Ohio and Iowa against two strong GOP candidates.  Obama won both states twice but Trump won both states by large margins.

It does appear as though some voters want to send Trump and the GOP a message

The ability of the GOP to stop Democrats from voting may be too much for the Senate contest.

 

Some RCP Data:

 

Senate Race RCP Averages
State RCP Average Red – Blue
AZ 0.3
FL -2.4
IN -2.5
MO 0.4
NV 0
MT -3
ND 8.7
WV 9.4
TN 5.5
TX 7
OH -16
WI -10.6
PA -16

 

 

 

 

 

The Issue is Garland Not Kavenaugh

The Issue is Garland Not Kavenaugh

I tend to believe the accusations of sexual assault made by women including both the accusations made against Kavenaugh and Ellison.   The Democrats are a bit hypocritical to attack Kavenaugh and give Ellison a pass.

I would vote against Kavenaugh  even without the assault allegations.  I would vote against Kavenaugh because he was not fully vetted and because of what the Republicans did to Merrick Garland.

In 1991 near the end of the Bush presidency Clarence Thomas replaced Thurgood Marshall.  Even with the Anita Hill controversy   Thomas got a vote.  Merrick Garland was a fairly conservative pick for a Democrat.  He is also squeaky clean. He did not get a vote.

The failure to seat Garland may give Republicans control of the court for a very long time.

We cannot have one set of rules for approving Republican judges and anothe set of rules for approving Democratic judges.

The Democrats will take power back some day.   When they regain power, they must do whatever is necessary to restore the balance of the court.  Critics of this approach will rant that two wrongs don’t make a right.   The correct answer is based on the theory of second best.

Regular order where valid nominees get a hearing and are fully vetted is the first best solution.  The first best solution does not exist. Republicans created a situation where Democratic nominees don’t get heard and Republican nominees don’t have to be fully vetted.

Democrats once they return to power must restore balance to the court. One way for the Democrats to fix the situation once they return to power is to totally restructure the court.   A less drastic fix would be to indict or impeach Kavenaugh over the multiple allegations of perjury.

Republicans are very confident that in the short term they will prevail.  They may be right.  This topic will be explained in the next post.

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