Category: Retirement

Financial Tip #9: Payoff the entire mortgage prior to retirement

Avoid taking mortgage debt into retirement to substantially reduce the likelihood of outliving your retirement savings.

Tip #9: People with mortgage debt in retirement must often take large taxable distributions from their 401(k) plan regardless of the level of the stock market.  The elimination of all debt prior to retirement substantially reduces the likelihood a person will outlive their retirement savings.

General Discussion:  Many financial advisors believe it is appropriate for their clients to keep some debt in retirement.   They will advise their clients to take out a 30-year loan instead of a 15-year loan to increase contributions to a 401(k) plan and to take full advantage of the deductibility of mortgage interest. They also argue that people nearing retirement should make additional catch-up contributions to their 401(k) plan instead of increasing payments on their mortgage.

The decision to keep debt in retirement is a recipe for financial disaster, especially if the household is reliant on fully taxed distributions from a 401(k) plan and partially taxed Social Security benefits.  

Issue One: The person with debt will more rapidly deplete their 401(k) plan and will pay higher taxes in retirement.

Discussion:  A person taking out a 30-year $500,000 mortgage, 15 years prior to retirement has annual mortgage expenses of $26,609.  The person that used a 15-year mortgage enters retirement debt free.  See the example presented in Financial Tip #4 Guidelines for the choice between a 15-year and 30-year mortgage.  

The person with the mortgage debt must either reduce non-mortgage expenditures or distribute additional funds from their retirement account to maintain the same consumption as the person that paid off her entire mortgage prior to retirement. 

Large tax-deductible mortgages reduce payment of federal and state income taxes in working years but increase payment of federal state and income taxes in retirement.

  • Retirees without business expenses generally have lower itemized deductions than people in their prime earnings years, hence, the advantages from itemizing in retirement are often small.
  • An increase in the distribution of 401(k) funds to cover the mortgage is fully taxed as ordinary income. 
  • An increase in 401(k) distributions increases the amount of Social Security subject to income tax as discussed on this page offered by the Social Security Administration.  

Issue Two:  The person without debt is better able to maintain current consumption levels and preserve wealth during market downturns.

Discussion:   Typically, a person attempts to maintain a certain level of consumption perhaps 60 percent of pre-retirement income throughout retirement.  A person with a mortgage or a monthly rental payment is less able to reduce expenditures when the value of stocks in their 401(k) falls because the mortgage payment or the rent are not optional. 

Any reduction in disbursements from 401(K) plans, which are reduced in value due to a collapse in stock prices, would have to occur from a reduction in non-housing consumption.   

The largest financial exposures occur when the market falls by a substantial amount in the early years of retirement when the entire savings from working years is exposed to the market.  The market downturn in stocks in 2008 was somewhat offset by an increase in bond values.   This time around both stocks and traditional bonds appear to be in a bubble.   People may want to consider Series I or inflation bonds as discussed in  financial tip #7.

Still, the best way to prepare for a market downturn is to eliminate all debt prior to retirement. 

Concluding Remarks:  During working years, many households take on a large amount of mortgage debt to reduce current year tax obligations. Failure to eliminate all mortgage debt prior to retirement often leads to rapid depletion of 401(k) assets, higher income tax burdens in retirement and increased exposure to financial volatility.  

Financial Tip #7: Invest in Series I Savings Bonds whenever possible

Middle income households should purchase some Series I Bonds from the Treasury annually.

Tip #7: Series I Savings Bonds should be included in every investor’s portfolio.  This asset purchased directly from the U.S. Treasury without fees is an effective hedge against inflation and higher interest rates.

Characteristics and rules governing Series I bonds:   The Series I bond, an accrual bond issued by the U.S. Treasury tied to inflation, is described here.  

Key Features of Series I Bonds:

  • Backed by the full faith of the U.S. Treasury
  • Cannot be redeemed until one year after issue.
  • Redemptions prior to five years from issue date forfeiture of one quarter of interest.
  • The composite interest rate changes every six months,
  • The interest rate is based on two components – a fixed rate and the inflation rate.   
  • The composite rate is guaranteed to not fall below zero.
  • The interest is taxed when the bond is redeemed.
  • Bond matures and stops paying interest after 30 years.
  • The Treasury limits annual purchases of the bonds to $15,000 per person with a limit of $10,000 on electronic purchases and $5,000 on paper purchases.  The paper Series I bonds can only be purchased through refunds from the IRS.

Reasons for Purchasing Series I Bonds:

  • Series I Bonds, unlike traditional bonds and bond ETFs, do not fall in value.
  • In the current low-interest rate high valuation environment, traditional bonds and stock prices are almost certain to decline in value.  
  • A retired person with I-Bonds outside of a 401(k) plan can respond to a market downturn by using proceeds from the redemption of I-bonds to fund current consumption rather than disburse funds from a 401(k) plan, which could be temporarily down in value.
  • The Series I Bond is a riskless asset.  Investors with this asset can reduce holdings of traditional bonds and cash and increase investments in equities.

Difference Between Series I Bonds and TIPS:

Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS also allow investors to protect returns when inflation and interest rates rise.

Key differences between TIPS and a Series I bond as explained here:

  • The TIPS value can fall in an era of deflation.  The Series I bond never falls in value.
  • The tax on interest from TIPS is paid annually and not deferred to redemption
  • TIPS bonds can be sold without forfeiture of any interest at any time.  The redemption of a Series I bond is not allowed until after a year from the purchase date and sales prior to five years from the purchase date involve a forfeiture of a 3 months of interest.  
  • All TIPS can be counted as a liquid asset.   Only Series I older than 5 years from issue should be considered liquid.
  • Up to $5.0 million in TIPS can be purchased in a single auction.  The annual limit on the purchase of Series I Bonds is $15,000.

Thoughts on Series I interest rates:

  • The current fixed interest rate on a Series I Bond is 0 percent.  The current composite fixed + inflation component on bonds purchased prior to May 2022 is 7.12%.  A delay in the purchase of a Series I bond until the second half of the year could result in a permanently higher fixed rate.  However, investors would lose an annualized return of 7.12% accruing in May. 
  • Bonds purchased years ago in a high interest rate environment have a higher current composite rate because the fixed component is higher.  People are currently aware of I-Bonds because of the elevated inflation rate.  The purchase of I-bonds also makes sense when inflation is low and interest rates are high because the investor will obtain both a higher fixed rate and increases in interest when inflation returns.

Concluding Thoughts:  Investors should purchase a Series I bond every year.  Investors who maximize receipt of the employer matching contributions to a 401(k) plan can then divert additional investments to a Roth IRA or a Series I Bond.  People without a 401(k) plan that allows matching contributions should contribute to a Roth, invest Roth contributions in equities, and divert some funds to the purchase of Series I bonds.

Financial Tip #6: Rollover 401(k) assets to IRAs

Employees changing jobs with funds in a high-cost 401(k) need to consider rolling funds into a low-cost IRA.

Tip #6: An employee leaving a firm can substantially increase retirement wealth by moving401(k) funds to an IRA.   Be careful though!  Protections against creditors are stronger for 401(k) plans than for IRAs in many states.

Examples of potential gain from rolling over assets in a high-cost 401(K) to a low-cost IRA: 

Example One:  A worker leaving her firm at age 50 can keep $500,000 in 401(k) funds in the firm-sponsored retirement plan that charges an annual fee of 1.3% or can move the funds to a low-cost IRA that charges an annual fee of 0.3%.   The return on assets prior to fees in both the 401(k) plan and the IRA is 6.0 percent per year.  

What is the value of the account at age if assets remain in the high-cost 401(k) and if assets are rolled over into the low-cost IRA?

  • Account value of high-fee 401(k) plan is $995,796.
  • Account value of low-cost IRA is $1,148,404.
  • Gain from rollover is $152,609.

Example Two: A worker changing jobs at age 30 can keep $20,000 in the firm 401(k) or move the funds to a low-cost IRA.  The annual fee for the 401(k) is 1.3 %, the annual fee for the IRA is 0.3%. The underlying returns prior to fees for both assets in the 401(k) and assets in the IRA is 8.0%.  

What is the value of the account at age 60 if the person keeps assets in the high-cost 401(k) or moves funds to a low-cost IRA?

  • Account value of high-cost 401(k) plan is $139,947.
  • Account value of low-cost IRA is $185,140.
  • Gain from rollover is $45,194.

Note: The impact of financial fees on the future value of the account can be calculated with the FV function in Excel.  The arguments of the FV function are the rate of return after fees, holding period in years, and the initial balance in the 401(k) plan.   

 Additional Comments:

  • Most roll overs from 401(k) plans to IRAs occur when a worker leaves a firm for another employer.  Some firms allow for some in-service rollovers.  
  • Some workers, in need of cash routinely, disburse funds from their 401(k) plan.  The disbursement of funds from a traditional 401(k) plan prior to age 59 ½ can lead to penalties or tax.   A roll over of funds from a 401(k) plan does not lead to additional tax or any financial penalties.
  • One motive for moving funds from a 401(k) plan to an IRA is the desire to place funds in a Roth account when a firm only offers a traditional retirement plan.   The act of rolling over funds from a 401(k) to an IRA and the act of converting the new conventional IRA to a Roth IRA are separate and do not have to occur together.  Conversion costs are lowest when a worker has low marginal tax rate.  Several future posts will examine the costs and benefits on converting traditional retirement accounts to Roth accounts.
  • The federal bankruptcy code protects both 401(k) plans and IRAs. However, 401(k) plans offer stronger protection against creditors than IRAs outside of bankruptcy.  Whether IRAs are protected from creditors is determined by state law.  ERISA, a national law, provides protection against creditors for 401(k) plans.  This difference can persuade some people to keep funds in a 401(k) plan, rather than covert funds to an IRA.  Go here for a state-by-state analysis of protections against creditors for owners of IRAs.
  • The calculations, presented above, of greater wealth from the rollover assumes identical pre-tax returns for the high-cost 401(k) plan and the low-cost IRA.  Most financial experts believe that low-cost passively managed funds tend to outperform high-cost funds.  Interestingly, Warren Buffet, probably the best active investor of all times suggests passive investing in low-cost funds is generally the better approach.
  • Factors other than transaction costs can impact the decision to rollover 401(k) funds or stay.   Some 401(k) plans allow investors to purchase an annuity at retirement.  The existence of automatic enrollment from a 401(k) plan to an annuity could induce some workers to keep funds in a 401(k) rather than roll over funds into an IRA.

Financial Tip #5: Maximize the 401(k) match and then contribute to IRAs

Maximize the employer matching contribution then save additional funds in an IRA!

Tip #5:  A worker at a firm with a 401(k) plan that has high fees should maximize receipt of the employer match and divert additional funds to a low-cost IRA.

Analysis:

The Situation:

  • Worker has access to a 401(k) plan that matches contributions equal to 5.0% of salary.
  • The 401(k) plan has an annual fee equal to 1.3% of assets.
  • Vanguard and Fidelity offer a deductible IRA with an annual fee of 0.3% of assets.

The Choice:

  • Choice One: Contribute 10 percent of income to a 401(K) 
  • Choice Two: Contribute 5% percent of income to a 401(K) and 5.0% of income to an IRA.

Additional Assumptions:

  • The person earns $75,000 per year for 35 years.
  • The return on investments prior to fees is 6.0% per year.
  • Contributions are bi-weekly

The Outcome:

  • Choice One:  Wealth at Retirement $998,933 all in a 401(K).
  • Choice Two: Wealth at Retirement $1,083,089, with both 401(K) and IRA.
  • Additional wealth from diverting funds to an IRA is $83,876.

Concluding Remarks:   Many financial advisors ignore fees and recommend maximizing contributions to a 401(k) plan.  A better solution is to maximize the employer match and divert additional savings to a low-cost IRA.

Financial Tip #2: Maximize use of after-tax Roth IRAs

Tip number 3:  Most households use traditional retirement accounts instead of Roth accounts.  The Tax Policy Center reports around 23% of taxpayers have a traditional IRA compared to around 12% of taxpayers with a Roth IRA.  According to CNBC, in 2016 around 70 percent of firms offered a Roth 401(k), but only 18% of workers used the Roth 401(k) option.  

More people should choose a Roth retirement plan over a traditional one.  People should use Roth accounts in the following circumstances.

  • Workers at firms not offering a retirement plan with a marginal tax rate less than 25% should use a Roth IRA instead of a deductible IRA.
  • Workers at firms offering both a traditional and Roth 401(k) should choose the Roth 401(k) if their marginal tax rate is less than 25%.
  • Workers with marginal tax rates less than 25% at firms with 401(k) plans without employee matching contributions should select a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) over a traditional 401(k) plan.
  • Workers who maximize receipt of employer matching contributions should place additional contributions in a Roth IRA.
  • Spouses of workers with family AGI below the contribution limit for Roth contributions should contribute to a Roth IRA, if eligible.

Comments:

  • Gains from 401(k) contributions are relatively small when employers don’t provide a matching contribution and a worker’s marginal tax rate is low.  
  • Workers with Roth accounts are less likely to withdraw and spend all funds prior to retirement than workers with traditional accounts because they can access the amount contributed without penalty or tax prior to age 59 ½. 
  • The tax saving from Roth disbursements in retirement are high both because disbursements after age 59 ½ are not taxed and the Roth disbursement does not increase the amount of Social Security subject to tax.
  • Workers at a firm that do not match employee contributions, around 49 percent of employers, should contribute to a Roth IRA instead of a 401(k) plan unless the worker has a high marginal tax rate.
  • One effective contribution strategy is to take full advantage of the employer match and contribute all additional funds to a Roth IRA. Two common 401(k) matching formulas are 50 percent of the dollar amount contributed by the employee up to 6.0 percent of the employee’s salary and 100 percent of contributions up to 3 percent of the employee’s salary. 
  • Most new employees at firms with a vesting requirement, a rule delaying full ownership of 401(k) matches, should contribute to a Roth IRA instead of a 401(k) plan.
  • Stay-home spouses of workers with income should choose a Roth IRA over a traditional one if they are eligible. In 2021, a single filer with MAGI less than $140,000 and a married joint return filer with MAGI less than $206,000 cannot contribute to a Roth IRA.  Workers with income above these contribution limits should contribute to a Roth IRA.  Other workers should use a backdoor IRA.

Readers should remember to open their Roth IRA early in life as explained in financial tip number one.

Financial Tip #1: Open and fund a Roth IRA early in your career

Tip #1: Open and fund a Roth IRA and invest funds in a low-cost ETF when you get your first job in high school or college.

  • People who open a Roth IRA early in life have a long investment horizon.   The longer investment horizon allows individuals to invest in equities and accumulate substantial wealth.
  • A person who invests $1,000 in a Roth at age 17 will have $25,729 at age 65 if the average rate of return was 7.0% per year.   The total wealth at age 65 would be $62,585 when rate of return is 9.0% per year.  This Nerd Wallet article suggests the average rate of return on stocks is around 10 percent per year.
  • Firms like Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard offer exchange traded funds with low fees and no minimum balance. A fund like VOO from Vanguard which covers the entire S&P 500 at low cost could easily earn 7% over long investment horizons.
  • The wealth estimates presented above assume the person does not tap funds in the Roth IRA prior to age 65.   This is not always possible.   The owner of the Roth IRA is allowed to disburse the after-tax contribution without penalty or tax at any time.   The Roth contributions can be used without penalty or tax for emergencies or to repay debt. The investment returns from inside a Roth are subject to penalty and tax if disbursed prior to age 59 ½.
  • All funds disbursed from traditional 401(k) plans and deductible IRAs are subject to penalty or tax if disbursed prior to age 59 ½. A young person embarking on her first job with a lifetime of obligations ahead of her should select the Roth over the traditional retirement plan, especially if there is no employer match, which is generally the case on a first job.

Concluding Thoughts:  Many employers automatically enroll new employees in a traditional 401(k) plan even though the worker would do much better in a Roth IRA.  Too many workers contributing to a traditional 401(k) plan, disburse funds prior to retirement and incur penalty and tax.  My view, expressed here and in several future posts, is that the Roth IRA should become the default option.

A Modified Roth IRA

Introduction:

Many people, for a wide variety of reasons, are failing to save enough for retirement. The proposal presented and evaluated here seeks to expand retirement savings by replacing 401(k) plans with a modified Roth IRA.  

The modified Roth IRA maintains key features of current Roth IRAs but adds additional sources of contributions in the form of employer matching funds and contributions for low-income households from the government.  The modified Roth IRA creates incentives for young people and people with debt to start saving for retirement early in their career and prevents people from disbursing their entire retirement accounts prior to retirement.  The tax incentives for contributions to the modified Roth could increase workforce participation.  The introduction of the modified Roth is more equitable than the current system, which favors workers at firms with generous but expensive 401(k) plans.

Description of the modified Roth IRA:

  • The basic rules governing worker contributions to the modified Roth are identical to rules governing current Roth IRAs. Contributions are fully taxed during the year the contribution is made.  Contributions as with current Roth rules.  Contributions cannot exceed wage income of the household.  All employee contributions to the modified Roth IRAs can be withdrawn without tax or penalty at any time.  All disbursements from the modified Roth after age 59 ½ are untaxed.
  • The modified Roth allows for additional contributions from employers, from people hiring an independent contractor, and from the government.   The rule allowing non-taxed compensation to independent contractors will allow more people to work independently and save for retirement.  The government contributions are only available for workers from low-income households and will not exceed $10,000 over the lifetime of the workers.
  • Disbursements from investment returns, government contributions and employer contributions would not be allowed until age 59 ½.  
  • The maximum allowable employee contribution to the modified Roth account is $10,000 per year, indexed for inflation.

Advantages of the modified Roth account:

  • There are strong incentives for young people to open a Roth account and start saving as soon as they enter the workforce.   The modified Roth account expands gains from saving at a young age because matching contributions would compound for years.
  • People entering the workforce with student debt often delay or forego 401(k) contributions. There is less incentive to delay contributions to a Roth retirement account than a traditional one because contributions can be used for emergencies or for debt reduction without penalty or tax.  The modified Roth maintains this advantage and allows for additional matching contributions, which will compound over time.
  • Many young adults now routinely distribute a substantial portion of their 401(k) savings early in their career often when switching to a new position.   The rules of the modified Roth IRA guarantee that a portion of retirement savings, employer and government contributions cannot be withdrawn until age 59 ½.   This proposal substantially reduces shortfalls in retirement income caused by early distributions. 
  • Many employees work at firms that do not offer 401(k) plan or work at firms that do not match employee contributions.  The modified Roth IRA will provide for some matching funds for workers
  • Independent contractors do not have access to matching funds from people hiring them.  The modified Roth allows for matching contributions for people hired as independent contractors.  The matching contributions for contract employees would be the outcome of a negotiation between the firm and the independent contractor.   
  • Workers at firms without employer contributions could obtain matching contribution.
  • Some current 401(k) plans lock workers into a high-fee 401(k) plan, which leads to a substantial loss in retirement wealth.  The modified Roth account described here allows workers to choose a low-fee investment vehicle from a firm like Fidelity, Schwab, or Vanguard.
  • Unlike the child tax credit, the government contributions to the modified Roth are only available for households with wage income.  The combination of tax-free retirement savings and some matching contributions from employers or the government could induce some people to remain attached to the workforce.
  • Some people will choose to report income they otherwise might have reported because without reported income they will be ineligible to contribute to the modified Roth an ineligible for matching contributions. 

How to pay for the modified Roth IRA:

  • The selection of the modified Roth leads to lower use of 401(k) plans and lower loss of tax revenue from decreased 401(k) usage.
  • Additional tax revenue from the introduction of the modified Roth account could be obtained by reducing allowable contributions to 401(k) plans. 
  • A tax of 1 percent of Roth balance over $2,000,000 would recoup some revenues and would be more equitable than current required minimum distributions.
  • The increased retirement savings induced by the modified Roth IRA could lead to a phased change in the Social Security retirement age from 62 to 63 to reduce the long-term Social Security deficit.
  • Part of the cost the modified Roth could be offset by a reduction in the child tax credit.   The combination of a modified Roth and a smaller child tax credit would remain favorable to low-income households and would expand labor force participation relative to current subsidies.

Concluding Remarks:

Many policy proposals either improve equity and reduce economic growth or worsen equity and increase growth.  The additional subsidies created in the modified Roth proposal are both progressive and pro-growth.   The new subsidies stimulate savings by low-income households, workers without access to the most generous 401(k) plans and new entrants to the workforce with high levels of debt and low levels of liquid assets for emergencies.  The new subsidies, in sharp contrast to some existing subsidies like the child tax credit, stimulate workforce participation, which will lead to higher economic growth.

Reinventing the 401(k) plan

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics around 29 percent of people with access to a 401(k) plan choose to not contribute to their plan.  In addition, The Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI) reports that in 2015 around $92 billion was removed from 401(k) plans prior to retirement.   The combination of people refusing to contribute to their 401(k) plans and people taking premature contributions will result in many people with inadequate retirement income. The rules governing 401(k) plans need to be changed so that fewer people choose to forego making contributions and distributions prior to retirement are limited to a certain extent.

Current rules governing contributions to 401(k) plans provide significant financial advantages to workers who contribute.   The contributions are not subject to federal or state income tax in the year they are made.  Returns on investments are not taxed until retirement.   Many firms match or partially match employee contributions.   Many financial advisors believe that workers who fail to contribute, especially those at firms that provide an employee match, are irrational.  

There are several rational reasons why some workers forego contributions to 401(k) plans. Recently reported statistics indicate that around 40 percent of households do not have enough savings to cover a $400 bill.  A person without a basic emergency fund could be late on her mortgage or rent, unable to pay for a doctor or emergency room or fix a car.  A decision to place funds in a 401(k) plan that leads to late payments on bills will lead to late fees, a bad credit rating, higher borrowing costs and other adverse financial outcomes.   

A decision to make substantial 401(k) contributions might result in a person selecting a 20-year student loan over a 10-year student loan.  Consider a married couple with $60,000 of combined student debt at a 5 percent interest rate.   Lifetime student debt payments are $19,000 lower if student debt is repaid in 10 years rather than 20 years.   Many student borrowers could only afford the shorter-term student loan by reducing 401(k) contributions.

A decision to make substantial 401(k) contributions might force a person to take out a 30-year mortgage over a 15-year mortgage.   A person taking out a $400,000 30-year mortgage at 3.9 percent would have an outstanding balance of $257.000 after 15 years.   The 15-year mortgage would have been totally repaid, and in addition the borrower would have obtained a lower interest rate.  Again, many student borrowers can only afford the shorter-term mortgage by reducing 401(k) contributions.

In some states a person with assets in a 401(k) plan are not eligible for food stamps or Medicaid for nursing home expenses.   Go here for a paper on how retirement savings impact eligibility for food stamps.   Go here for a paper on how retirement savings impact eligibility for Medicaid nursing home expenses.   The underlying assumption behind such laws is the worker who comes upon bad times must deplete her retirement account prior to receiving any financial assistance from the government.

Many people retire early often because of the loss of a job or for health reasons.   People who retire early and have all of their funds in a 401(k) plan will be worse off than people who have saved both inside and outside their retirement plans both because early distributions from a 401(k) plan are subject to a 10 percent penalty and because distributions from conventional 401(k) plans are fully taxed.

Many older workers must choose between paying off their mortgage prior to retirement or increasing the amount of funds they place in their 401(k) plan.   Financial planners tend to favor additional accumulation in 401(k) plans over more rapid paydown of mortgage debt.  This choice often fails to work out well because people with a mortgage in retirement must, all else equal, make a larger distribution than people without mortgage obligations and the entire distribution from the conventional 401(k) plan is fully taxed.   The higher 401(k) distributions due to the need to make mortgage payments is especially difficult for retirees when a market downturn occurs at the beginning of retirement.

A household that is 401(k) rich and cash poor faces substantial financial risks.  Some households with 401(k) wealth but other financial needs raid their 401(k) plan and pay a 10 percent penalty in addition to tax on their early distribution leading to inadequate funds in retirement.  These problems could be reduced by changing the rules governing distributions from a 401(k) plan.  

Three rules should be modified.  First, workers should be allowed to withdraw 30 percent of funds contributed to a 401(k) plan without financial penalty.   Second, the worker should be prohibited from withdrawing any other funds from the 401(k) plan (the other 70 percent of contributions and all returns if any) until after age 59 ½.   Third, loans from 401(k) plans would be prohibited.

This combination of rule changes incentivizes workers to make additional contributions to their 401(k) plan while assuring that they do not raid their account prior to retirement.  

The provision for penalty-free withdrawal creates an emergency fund inside a 401(k) plan.  The provision for penalty-free withdrawal will allow a worker with student debt or mortgage debt to pursue a more aggressive repayment strategy while simultaneously saving for retirement.

Under current law, workers are allowed to distribute their entire 401(k) account prior to retirement.  This outcome could be forced upon a worker who loses his job in order to obtain Medicaid or food-stamp benefits.   The new rule by prohibiting most distributions prior to retirement will leave all workers with most funds in their 401(k) funds at retirement.

A final advantage of the rule change is that it allows more workers to reduce their tax obligations in retirement.   Under current tax rules, contributions to 401(k) plans result in tax savings in working years and higher tax obligations in retirement.   Some taxpayers use Roth accounts to minimize future tax obligations.  The new rules create a simpler way for workers to minimize their tax obligation in retirement. They can simply transfer 30 percent of their funds outside of their 401(k) account and purchase either stock, which is taxed at long term capital gains rates or an inflation linked Treasury bond, which is taxed at preferential rates.

The current 401(k) rules are not working for a lot of people, especially people with limited liquidity and large debts in relation to their income.   The proposals presented here provides incentives for people who can’t contribute to start savings and also helps current savers reduce their tax obligations in retirement.  

David Bernstein is an economist living in Colorado.   He is the author of a policy primer on student debt, health care, and retirement income titled “Defying Magnets:  Centrist Policies in a Polarized World.”

Is long term care insurance a viable product?

Many financial planners maintain that long term care insurance (LTCI) is an essential purchase.  Many policy makers and politicians believe that the Medicaid long term care benefit needs to be reduced and that private long term care insurance is a viable substitute for Medicaid.  Let’s agree that the political issue of how to reform Medicaid is separate from the personal decision on how you should prepare for retirement.  In my view, private LTCI is not a suitable investment for most individuals preparing for retirement.  Furthermore, private LTCI may not be a viable product.

Many households have insufficient levels of liquid asset and insufficient savings in their retirement accounts.  Studies conducted before the financial crisis indicated that only around one half of the baby generation were adequately preparing for retirement.  These households need to focus on increasing their saving rate rather than divert savings towards an illiquid asset.

Comprehensive multi-year LTCI insurance with inflation protection is extremely expensive.   Ironically, even most LTCI purchasers have only a few years of coverage and must rely on Medicaid for long stays in the nursing home.

LTCI almost always costs more than anticipated at the time the policy is purchased.    Insurance firms cannot raise premiums on a policy simply because a person claims benefits.  However, an insurance company can raise premiums on an entire class of policies if actuaries determine that the sum of premiums and investment income will not cover benefits.    Premium increases, even among the strongest and most conservative firms, are now commonplace only a few years after a policy is issued.

Premium increases are in part attributable to poor investment returns and low interest rates.    Perhaps premium increases will be less prevalent in the future.  However, current premium increases are occurring when individuals can least afford them, when their own portfolios are down in value.

Many of the better-run insurance companies are currently leaving the industry altogether.   (MetLife left the industry and I believe Prudential stopped selling on the individual market.)    This is what Fitch had to say about LTCI in a recent report.

“In addition to higher than expected claims, historically low interest rates have negatively affected LTC results.  We believe the long-tail nature of the product and future renewal premiums make the LTC business more vulnerable to interest-rate risk.  Low rates continue to curb investment income needed to help fund LTC benefits.

We believe mispricing of the LTC product will continue to weigh on the insurers’ earnings and capital, but we note the current in-force individual LTC business accounts for less than 2% of industry reserves and premiums.”

There is one LTCI product that intrigues me.  Many states participate in the LTCI partnership program.  Individual who purchase a partnership policy can keep assets equal to their amount of coverage and still qualify for Medicaid.

It is highly likely that if you live long enough you will need long term care.  You need to prepare.  However, for most of us the purchase of LTCI is not the appropriate option.  More on my views on LTCI can be downloaded on Kindle.  The article can be purchased for $4.99 or borrowed for free.

http://www.amazon.com/Things-consider-purchasing-insurance-ebook/dp/B008N5QO8G/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1342917035&sr=1-1&keywords=thing+to+consider+before+purchasing

Overview of Retirement Issues

This post describes my work on retirement issues that was published in “Defying Magnets: Centrist Policies in a Polarized World”   The book can be found on Amazon and Kindle.

https://www.amazon.com/Defying-Magnets-Centrist-Policies-Polarized/dp/179668015X/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=defying+magnets%3A+Centrist+policies&qid=1550091821&s=amazon-devices&sr=8-2

There are two pillars of retirement income in the United States.   The first pillar involves Social Security a mandatory program covering most workers.   The second system involves voluntary defined contribution pension plans.  This section starts with a basic description of the Social Security system and private defined contribution retirement plans.

The Social Security program has been highly popular with Americans and many retirees are highly dependent on this government-run program.   However, the Social Security system is running shortfalls which will lead to automatic benefit cuts around 2035.   Defined contribution pension plans — 401(k) plans and IRAs — have over the last 40 years become the dominant vehicle for private retirement savings.

Many people forego investing in 401(k) plans and IRAs even though these plans provide generous tax benefits to savers.   The failure of many people to fully invest in tax-deferred retirement plans puzzles many financial advisors.   The analysis presented here indicates that saving for emergencies and reducing debt is and should be a higher financial priority than saving for retirement for many people.

Several changes to rules governing retirement savings accounts which would allow more people to save for retirement while aggressively reducing debt and preparing for emergencies are presented here.

  • Allow tax-free and penalty-free distributions on a portion of total contributions (perhaps 25 percent) for emergencies, student debt reduction, mortgage restructuring and long term care expenses prior to age 59 ½
  • Allow for some tax-free and penalty-free distributions for paying off the mortgage for people over age 50.
  • Eliminate all other distributions from 401(k) plans prior to the age of 59 ½.
  • Prohibit 401(k) loans.
  • Prohibit states from denying Medicaid and food stamp benefits for low-income people with 401(k) assets.

This proposal could be paid for by imposing a haircut on tax exemption for 401(k) contributions.   (Currently, 100 percent of contributions to a 401(k) plan are exempt from income tax.   The new rule would exempt 85 percent of contributions.)

People without access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan have substantially lower retirement savings than people with access to retirement plans at work.  We consider ways to expand retirement savings for people without employer-based retirement savings.   Specific proposals include:

  • Equalization of contribution limits between IRAs and 401(k) plans.
  • A rule change allowing firms without 401(k) plans to contribute to employee IRAs.
  • A rule change allowing firms to compensate contractors and employees of contractors with non-taxed fringe benefits including contributions to IRAs.

According to the trustees of the Social Security system, financial imbalances impacting Social Security stemming from the decrease in the working-age population will result in automatic cuts to Social Security benefits around 2034.   In my view, it will be difficult to implement any compromise that reduces Social Security fiscal imbalances and prevents future automatic cuts to benefits without first increasing private retirement savings and reducing the dependence on Social Security.  The final chapter of this section outlines and reviews some policy proposals related to improving the Social Security system.